Is Juventus really the most favored team in Serie A with the penalty kicks and when in doubt the episodes are always in favor of Juventus?
I therefore armed myself with patience and I went to comb through at my expense (time and money) in the archives of Panini Digital, Lega A, B and Lega Lega Pro to collect and compare data on some of our 6 big of our Serie A in the last 18 seasons: inter, Juventus, Lazio, Milan, Napoli and Rome. The time extension was chosen considering how “watershed” was the summer of 2006, dividing into two branches the seasons that go between the 1997-98 and the current one, updated until the 6th round of the current season.
Before starting with the numbers it is useful to make some considerations. It is impossible to analyze each case for all games played for one simple reason: on the same weighs the discretion of individual referees (and why not everyone who has seen them or concern to retrospectively), which in my opinion can be voluntary can not be considered as such by an referee or vice versa, without considering the fouls not seen by referees and assistants for many different reasons (positioning, covered by players, etc. ..).
In order to have a basis for comparison, however, on the dangerousness of each team I then decided to take the number of goals scored and conceded by the same: it is easy to assume that a team very prolific lies more often in the opponent’s area and therefore more at risk fouls and vice versa. Which can not therefore having the cachet of being an absolute index, but it can make a trend and therefore be a useful point of comparison.
FROM 2006/07 until TODAY – In the seasons that followed the hot summer of 2006, Juventus, despite the greater number of goals scored (1.81 per game on average) is the team to have seen the grant in their favor in the least number of kicks penalty compared to the other big taken into consideration. The ranking is led by Milan with 74, then 66 Roma, 61 Napoli, Inter and Lazio 52 Although it has also suffered 26 goals less than AC Milan, Juventus do not drive even the ranking of the penalties whistled against: the rossoneri are again first with 33, following the Bianconeri to 35, then 37 Napoli, Roma 44, Inter 48 and Lazio 50.
NOTE: Juventus and Napoli have played 4 rounds more (the Serie B 2006/07 was 42 days against 38 of Serie A). Roma have a game in hand because it is not considered Cagliari-Roma 0-3 at the table of the 2012/13 won by the Giallorossi without going into the field)
Coldly analyzing the numbers you can see how to Juventus is granted a penalty kick on average every 12 goals scored, unlike Milan where it only takes 7, vice versa to Inter was whistled a penalty against every 7 goals conceded, while for Napoli and Milan need “to get” 9.
As an additional analysis tool we can try to address the relationship between goals scored and conceded, and that between the penalties awarded in their favor and those against, considering as acceptable from the point of view of a statistical deviation of about ± 0.15. For Lazio and Roma the numbers would appear on the line, while there was a deviation of more than 0.6 points in the negative (less penalties whistled in relation to the scored goals) for Inter and Juventus.
FROM 1997-98 TO 2005/06 – Analyzed the present, it is fair to give an eye to the past going to check what was the situation in the 9 previous seasons where the number of rounds is comparable in line with those played in the last period. Last place this time there is Napoli with 60 penalties in favor (but it must be said that in those years the Neapolitans relegates in Serie B and then finish even in C1 due to the bankruptcy and were clearly the worst attack with little more than a goal per game). It is the Milan that leads the ranking for that period with 73, followed by Rome 66 (best attack), Lazio 63, ending with Inter and Juventus despite being matched to 61 respectively on the 2nd and 3rd place as the number of realizations. Juventus, best defense in the period, is the team that has seen whistle less penalties against 30, followed by Milan 33, Lazio 37, Inter 46, 47 Roma and for Napoli 49 with a ranking that follows in a consistent manner with the number of goals conceded.
NOTE: The 20 games more for Napoli derived from militancy in series B (4 championships) and C1 (2)
To Juventus from 1997 to 2006 was awarded a penalty every 9 goals scored, compared to 8 of Lazio, 7 of Milan and to 6 for Napoli. Vice versa Roma and Inter were seen whistling a penalty against each approximately 7.5 goals conceded against almost 8 of Napoli up to the 9.3 of Milan.
Analyzing the difference between the ratios will highlight negative values of Inter, Roma and Juventus with the latter, however, appears to have the values more consistent in the pattern of penalties whistled in favor and against.
TEAM ACHIEVEMENTS – Over the years taken into account we have also collected for completeness placements of 6 teams, highlighting badges, promotions, relegation and corporate insolvencies over the number of championships in 18 seasons.
Juventus have won half of the championships played in 18 seasons (5 before 2006 and after 4), followed by inter with 4 (22.2% – all after 2006), from Milan with 3 (16.7% – 2 before and 1 after) and the other three with 1 (5.6%), dating back to years prior to the summer of 2006.
THE MOGGI ERA – To prevent any argument I wanted to go one step further, extending the analysis of three years to take into account the entire period in which Luciano Moggi, widely regarded as the Belzebù of Italian football, was General Manager of Juventus and compare the new data available.
The data that catches the eye the most is that, apart from a few rare cases, a greater consistency in the relationship between penalties and goals scored for the 12 seasons played in the years between 1994 and 2006 with respect to the following seasons where you see diverge widely negative numbers of Juventus and inter trend compared to the previous period, only break with the past. The numbers in fact said that the tendency is to whistle penalty-kicks less in favour of the two teams and, at the same time, a few more against.
THE VOICE OF THE NUMBERS – I close without writing what is my conclusion concerning because I find it is right that each of you can think of without conditions. The task of this piece is just to give you some more means to do it, I just tried to give a little ‘voice to the numbers.
“When I was at Inter and they whistled a doubtful penalty nobody said anything when I was at Juve a total mess was outbursting” (Christian Vieri)
adapted in english an article of Maurizio Romeo from Juventibus.com